Calibration
Decision feedback flywheel (CLAUDE.md §11 #1). Each operator-rated decision joins back to the opportunity that drove it; we compute Spearman ρ between each scoring factor and the operator's 1-5 success rating. With small n these numbers are exploratory — they tell you which way each factor probably points, not whether the relationship is statistically significant.
Decisions rated
0
Actionable
0
improve / launch / sample
Best predictor
—
Generated
4/30/2026
Per-factor Spearman ρ vs success rating
Mean rating by opportunity confidence
Does our self-reported confidence track outcomes? If high-confidence decisions don't outperform low-confidence ones, the confidence model itself needs work.
low (≤0.3)
medium (0.3-0.5)
high (>0.5)
No actionable rated decisions yet — buckets populate once outcomes are backfilled.
Interpretation
Spearman ρ in [-1, 1]. ρ > 0.3 = factor is a useful predictor. ρ near 0 = factor adds noise. ρ < -0.3 = factor is *inverted* (consider flipping its sign or weight). With n < ~10 these numbers are exploratory, not statistically significant.
Source: live · 2026-04-30.json · regenerated by python -m scoring.calibration.